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The global oil tanker demand is expected to decrease by 12% to 14% in 2009, subject to low crude oil demand combined with production cuts announced by OPEC. Production cuts announced by the OPEC, which are mainly from Middle East and African producers, are going to hit the oil tanker industry hard. As these producing countries are located far from the main consuming markets in Asia-Pacific, Northern and Western Europe and North America, oil tankers from these countries undertake very long voyages lasting two to three months. Decline in oil production in this region coupled with lower demand for transportation will significantly reduce the revenues of the tanker operators as their long distance tankers will remain idle.
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Global Transportation, Market Size and Growth
Moreover, these idle tankers will add to the available capacity, which in turn, will bring down the spot rates for tankers due to lower negotiation abilities of tanker operators. Towards the end of 2008, freight charges have hit record lows with average VLCC freight rate ranging between 45 and 50 WS (World Scale) points. This is further expected to fall to 35 WS points in 2009. (The Worldwide Tanker Normal Freight Scale is also known as Worldscale. It is established and governed jointly by the Worldscale Associations of London and New York. It establishes a baseline price for carrying a metric ton of product between any two ports in the world.)

The problem of surplus capacity is compounded by newly built tankers that are scheduled for delivery in 2009. In 2009 alone, 67 new ULCC, VLCC and Suezmax tankers are scheduled to commence operations, adding another 14.6 Million Metric Tonnes of DWT to the global crude oil tanker fleet. Further, as 70% of these new builds are under construction in shipyards of Japan and Republic of Korea, they are expected to be delivered as per schedule.
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"Global Crude Oil Tanker Industry To 2013: Investment Opportunities, Analysis and Forecasts of All Active and Planned Crude Oil Tankers
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